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Rudar Velenje vs Grbalj — First League 2019

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Grbalj
Grbalj
8/10/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rudar Velenje48%
×Draw26%
Grbalj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.46
Grbalj
0.98

Rudar Velenje creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.10
Grbalj
0.69

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
1.28
Grbalj
1.81

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Grbalj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
75%
Rudar Velenje or Grbalj
74%
Draw or Grbalj
52%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
24%
Grbalj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
77%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
43%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
18%
Grbalj 1+ goals
62%
Grbalj 2+ goals
26%
Grbalj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
66%
Grbalj (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Grbalj away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Grbalj defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Grbalj attack 0.69 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
48%
level
26%
Grbalj scores more
25%

Rudar Velenje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Velenje vs Grbalj

Grbalj beat Rudar Velenje 3-1 in First League on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.