Rudar Velenje 4–2 FK Mladost Podgorica

Rudar Velenje

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

FK Mladost Podgorica

M. Merdović 43'

V. Striković 42'

P. Kašćelan 35'

M. Zečević 3'

M. Brnović 49', 11'

2/19/2021

First League · Round 20Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rudar Velenje41%

×Draw28%

FK Mladost Podgorica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar VelenjeExpected goals in this matchFK Mladost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.05

Rudar Velenje

1.24

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.05

Rudar Velenje creates 18% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 34 away

1.10

creates per match

0.82

1.28

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rudar Velenje

1.10

FK Mladost Podgorica

0.82

allows per match

Rudar Velenje

1.28

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw

69%

Rudar Velenje or FK Mladost Podgorica

72%

Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica

59%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

18%

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

71%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

35%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

13%

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals

65%

FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals

28%

FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

57%

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.82 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more

41%

level

28%

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more

31%

Rudar Velenje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

11'

13'

20'

25'

M. Brnovic

35'

42'

43'

49'

59'

D. Živković← Z. Suraka

59'

A. Škrijelj← O. Peličić

71'

M. Brnovic

71'

M. Brnovic

73'

M. Golubovic

75'

B. Tahirović← M. Golubović

75'

P. Savković← L. Boričić

79'

B. Tahirovic

83'

B. Tošković← B. Mandić

88'

O. Hajrovic← D. Talović

88'

L. Kovačević← H. Matsui

Rudar

FK

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Bogavac

59'▲D. Živković←▼Z. Suraka

75'▲B. Tahirović←▼M. Golubović

88'▲O. Hajrovic←▼D. Talović

88'▲L. Kovačević←▼H. Matsui

Rudar Velenje substitutes

ŽivkovićTahirovićHajrovicKovačević

Manager: N. Rakojević

59'▲A. Škrijelj←▼O. Peličić

75'▲P. Savković←▼L. Boričić

83'▲B. Tošković←▼B. Mandić

FK Mladost Podgorica substitutes

ŠkrijeljSavkovićTošković

Match Recap: Rudar Velenje vs FK Mladost Podgorica

Rudar Velenje beat FK Mladost Podgorica 4-2 in First League on February 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Zečević (3'), M. Brnović (11', 49'), P. Kašćelan (35'), V. Striković (42'), M. Merdović (43').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.

Rudar Velenje vs FK Mladost Podgorica — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rudar Velenje vs FK Mladost Podgorica