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Rudar Velenje vs Dečić — First League 2019

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dečić
Dečić
5/1/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rudar Velenje31%
×Draw29%
Dečić40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.02
Dečić
1.18

Dečić creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 108 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.10
Dečić
1.08

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
1.28
Dečić
0.93

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
60%
Rudar Velenje or Dečić
71%
Draw or Dečić
69%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
12%
Dečić wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
64%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
27%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
8%
Dečić 1+ goals
69%
Dečić 2+ goals
33%
Dečić 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
44%
Dečić (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.93 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Dečić defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dečić attack 1.08 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
31%
level
29%
Dečić scores more
40%

Dečić at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Velenje vs Dečić

Rudar Velenje and Dečić drew 0-0 in First League on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.