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Dečić vs Rudar — Cup 2020

Dečić
Dečić
CANC
00:00
Rudar
Rudar
11/1/2023CupCup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dečić52%
×Draw24%
Rudar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.69
Rudar
1.05

Dečić creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.38
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Dečić
0.81
Rudar
2.00

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
76%
Dečić or Rudar
76%
Draw or Rudar
48%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
28%
Rudar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
82%
Dečić 2+ goals
50%
Dečić 3+ goals
24%
Rudar 1+ goals
65%
Rudar 2+ goals
28%
Rudar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
69%
Rudar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.38 + Rudar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rudar attack 1.29 + Dečić defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dečić scores more
52%
level
24%
Rudar scores more
24%

Dečić at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dečić face Rudar (Cup)

Cup returns with Dečić hosting Rudar. Match starts November 1, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.