Rudar Velenje 1–1 Buducnost Podgorica

Rudar Velenje

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

3/10/2021

First League · Round 24Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rudar Velenje27%

×Draw26%

Buducnost Podgorica47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar VelenjeExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.52

Rudar Velenje

1.08

Buducnost Podgorica

1.52

Buducnost Podgorica creates 41% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 123 away

1.10

creates per match

1.75

1.28

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Rudar Velenje

1.10

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Rudar Velenje

1.28

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw

53%

Rudar Velenje or Buducnost Podgorica

74%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

73%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

10%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

66%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

29%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

10%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

78%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

45%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

36%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more

27%

level

26%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

47%

Buducnost Podgorica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff