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Buducnost Podgorica vs Rudar — First League 2019

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
10/8/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica60%
×Draw22%
Rudar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.85
Rudar
0.90

Buducnost Podgorica creates 106% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 90 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.95
Rudar
0.86

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
0.93
Rudar
1.76

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
82%
Buducnost Podgorica or Rudar
78%
Draw or Rudar
40%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
35%
Rudar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
84%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
55%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
28%
Rudar 1+ goals
59%
Rudar 2+ goals
23%
Rudar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
77%
Rudar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Rudar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Rudar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Rudar attack 0.86 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
60%
level
22%
Rudar scores more
18%

Buducnost Podgorica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Buducnost Podgorica 2–0 Rudar

Buducnost Podgorica beat Rudar 2-0 in First League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.