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Rudar Velenje vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
6/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rudar Velenje27%
×Draw26%
Buducnost Podgorica47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.52

Buducnost Podgorica creates 41% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 123 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.10
Buducnost Podgorica
1.75

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
1.28
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
53%
Rudar Velenje or Buducnost Podgorica
74%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
73%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
10%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
66%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
29%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
10%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
78%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
45%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
36%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
27%
level
26%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
47%

Buducnost Podgorica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rudar Velenje 0–4 Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Rudar Velenje 4-0 in First League on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.