Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rudar Prijedor vs Sloga Doboj — 1st League - RS 2019

Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
FT
1 – 1
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
D. Jakupovic 73'
E. Buljubasic 90' (pen)
5/15/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rudar Prijedor52%
×Draw26%
Sloga Doboj22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Sloga Doboj
0.89

Rudar Prijedor creates 72% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor
2.07
Sloga Doboj
1.09

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor
0.69
Sloga Doboj
1.00

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw
78%
Rudar Prijedor or Sloga Doboj
74%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
48%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
27%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
78%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
45%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
20%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
59%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
22%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
70%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.69 · 71 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.07 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sloga Doboj attack 1.09 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more
52%
level
26%
Sloga Doboj scores more
22%

Rudar Prijedor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
D. Jakupovic
90'
E. BuljubasicPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Rudar Prijedor 1–1 Sloga Doboj

Rudar Prijedor and Sloga Doboj drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on May 15, 2021.

Goals: D. Jakupovic (73'), E. Buljubasic (90' pen).

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Prijedor.