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Rudar Prijedor vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
FT
1 – 1
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
3/23/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rudar Prijedor67%
×Draw20%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Prijedor
2.06
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.78

Rudar Prijedor creates 164% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor
2.10
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.88

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor
0.67
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
2.02

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw
87%
Rudar Prijedor or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
80%
Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
33%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
42%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
87%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
61%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
34%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
54%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
18%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
84%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.67 · 73 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.10 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more
67%
level
20%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
13%

Rudar Prijedor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Rudar Prijedor 1–1 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Rudar Prijedor and Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Prijedor.