Rudar Kakanj 2–2 Sloboda Tuzla: Result & Stats

Rudar Kakanj

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sloboda Tuzla

3/10/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rudar Kakanj45%

×Draw28%

Sloboda Tuzla27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar KakanjExpected goals in this matchSloboda Tuzla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.99

Rudar Kakanj

1.35

Sloboda Tuzla

0.99

Rudar Kakanj creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 28 away

1.75

creates per match

1.07

0.90

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj

1.75

Sloboda Tuzla

1.07

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj

0.90

Sloboda Tuzla

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw

73%

Rudar Kakanj or Sloboda Tuzla

72%

Draw or Sloboda Tuzla

55%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+

21%

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals

74%

Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals

39%

Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals

15%

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

63%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

26%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)

62%

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more

45%

level

28%

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

27%

Rudar Kakanj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff