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Rudar Kakanj vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
10/15/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rudar Kakanj62%
×Draw20%
Radnički Lukavac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
2.16
Radnički Lukavac
1.05

Rudar Kakanj creates 106% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.75
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
82%
Rudar Kakanj or Radnički Lukavac
80%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
38%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
39%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
88%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
63%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
36%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
78%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.16

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
62%
level
20%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
18%

Rudar Kakanj at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Kakanj vs Radnički Lukavac

Rudar Kakanj beat Radnički Lukavac 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.