Rudar Kakanj 5–0 Orašje: Result & Stats

Rudar Kakanj

FT

5 – 0

Orašje

9/19/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rudar Kakanj61%

×Draw21%

Orašje17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar KakanjExpected goals in this matchOrašje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.93

Rudar Kakanj

1.96

Orašje

0.93

Rudar Kakanj creates 111% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 46 away

1.75

creates per match

0.96

0.90

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj

1.75

Orašje

0.96

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj

0.90

Orašje

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Orašje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw

83%

Rudar Kakanj or Orašje

79%

Draw or Orašje

39%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+

37%

Orašje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals

86%

Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals

58%

Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals

31%

Orašje 1+ goals

61%

Orašje 2+ goals

24%

Orašje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)

78%

Orašje (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Orašje attack 0.96 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more

61%

level

21%

Orašje scores more

17%

Rudar Kakanj at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff