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Rudar Kakanj vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
5/25/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 28Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rudar Kakanj65%
×Draw21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.98
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.81

Rudar Kakanj creates 144% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.75
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
85%
Rudar Kakanj or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
79%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
35%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
40%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
86%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
59%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
31%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
56%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
82%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
65%
level
21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
15%

Rudar Kakanj at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Rudar Kakanj 1–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Rudar Kakanj beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.