Rudar Kakanj 2–1 Gornji Rahić: Result & Stats

Rudar Kakanj

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gornji Rahić

9/2/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rudar Kakanj62%

×Draw20%

Gornji Rahić18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar KakanjExpected goals in this matchGornji Rahić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.05

Rudar Kakanj

2.12

Gornji Rahić

1.05

Rudar Kakanj creates 102% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 29 away

1.75

creates per match

1.21

0.90

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj

1.75

Gornji Rahić

1.21

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj

0.90

Gornji Rahić

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Gornji Rahić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw

82%

Rudar Kakanj or Gornji Rahić

80%

Draw or Gornji Rahić

38%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+

38%

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals

88%

Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals

62%

Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals

35%

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

65%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

28%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)

77%

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.12

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more

62%

level

20%

Gornji Rahić scores more

18%

Rudar Kakanj at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff