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Rudar Kakanj vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Čelik
Čelik
9/16/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rudar Kakanj48%
×Draw26%
Čelik26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.50
Čelik
1.02

Rudar Kakanj creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 42 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.75
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
74%
Rudar Kakanj or Čelik
74%
Draw or Čelik
52%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
24%
Čelik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
78%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
44%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
19%
Čelik 1+ goals
64%
Čelik 2+ goals
27%
Čelik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
65%
Čelik (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Čelik attack 1.14 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
48%
level
26%
Čelik scores more
26%

Rudar Kakanj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Kakanj vs Čelik

Rudar Kakanj and Čelik drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.