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Rudar Kakanj vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
2 – 0
Čapljina
Čapljina
4/22/20171st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · Round 23Stadion Pod Vardom (Kakanj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rudar Kakanj58%
×Draw23%
Čapljina19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.79
Čapljina
0.93

Rudar Kakanj creates 92% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 24 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.71
Čapljina
0.96

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Čapljina
1.88

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
81%
Rudar Kakanj or Čapljina
77%
Draw or Čapljina
42%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
33%
Čapljina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
83%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
53%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
26%
Čapljina 1+ goals
61%
Čapljina 2+ goals
24%
Čapljina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
75%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.71 + Čapljina defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Čapljina attack 0.96 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
58%
level
23%
Čapljina scores more
19%

Rudar Kakanj at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Rudar Kakanj 2–0 Čapljina

Rudar Kakanj beat Čapljina 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 22, 2017.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom (Kakanj).