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Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie vs Polonia Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
FT
3 – 3
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
9/30/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie25%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.13
Polonia Warszawa
1.73

Polonia Warszawa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.19
Polonia Warszawa
1.64

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.81
Polonia Warszawa
1.06

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw
49%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Polonia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
75%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
10%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
68%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
31%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
11%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
82%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
52%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
33%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.64 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
25%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
51%

Polonia Warszawa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3–3 Polonia Warszawa

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie and Polonia Warszawa drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 1 Maja in Wysokie Mazowieckie.