Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1–1 Concordia Elbląg

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

FT

1 – 1

Concordia Elbląg

11/7/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie48%

×Draw22%

Concordia Elbląg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch Wysokie MazowieckieExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.43

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.88

Concordia Elbląg

1.43

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

1.19

creates per match

1.04

1.81

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.19

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.81

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw

71%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Concordia Elbląg

78%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

52%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

27%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

85%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

56%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

29%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

76%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

42%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

62%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.88

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

48%

level

22%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

29%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff