Ruch Chorzów 2–1 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Ruch Chorzów

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Warta Poznań

10/25/2024

I Liga · Round 14Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ruch Chorzów48%

×Draw26%

Warta Poznań26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch ChorzówExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Ruch Chorzów

1.50

Warta Poznań

1.03

Ruch Chorzów creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.67

Warta Poznań

0.90

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.16

Warta Poznań

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw

74%

Ruch Chorzów or Warta Poznań

74%

Draw or Warta Poznań

52%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

24%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

78%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

44%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

19%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

64%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

28%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

65%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.67 + Warta Poznań defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Warta Poznań attack 0.90 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more

48%

level

26%

Warta Poznań scores more

26%

Ruch Chorzów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff