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Ruch Chorzów vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
3/1/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 23Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów36%
×Draw28%
Piast Gliwice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.19
Piast Gliwice
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Piast Gliwice
1.13

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Piast Gliwice
1.13

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
63%
Ruch Chorzów or Piast Gliwice
72%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
64%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
15%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
70%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
33%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
12%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
70%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
34%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
49%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
36%
level
28%
Piast Gliwice scores more
37%

Piast Gliwice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Ruch Chorzów 3–0 Piast Gliwice

Ruch Chorzów beat Piast Gliwice 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Śląski in Chorzów.