Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Ruch Chorzów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Korona Kielce

11/26/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów43%

×Draw27%

Korona Kielce30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch ChorzówExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.12

Ruch Chorzów

1.38

Korona Kielce

1.12

Ruch Chorzów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

1.29

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.24

Korona Kielce

0.95

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.29

Korona Kielce

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw

70%

Ruch Chorzów or Korona Kielce

73%

Draw or Korona Kielce

57%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

20%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

75%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

40%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

16%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

67%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

31%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

58%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Korona Kielce defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Korona Kielce attack 0.95 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more

43%

level

27%

Korona Kielce scores more

30%

Ruch Chorzów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff