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Ruch Chorzów vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
5 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ruch Chorzów68%
×Draw17%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
2.50
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.08

Ruch Chorzów creates 131% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
3.17
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
0.78
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
85%
Ruch Chorzów or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
83%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
32%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
46%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
92%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
71%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
45%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
66%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
29%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
82%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 3.17 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.50

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
68%
level
17%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
15%

Ruch Chorzów at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ruch Chorzów 5–1 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Ruch Chorzów beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 5-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chorzów.