Ruch Chorzów 0–0 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Ruch Chorzów

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

8/21/2021

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ruch Chorzów52%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch ChorzówExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Ruch Chorzów

1.59

Garbarnia Kraków

0.98

Ruch Chorzów creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

1.72

creates per match

1.28

0.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.72

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów

0.67

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw

77%

Ruch Chorzów or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

48%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

27%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

80%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

47%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

21%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

62%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

26%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

69%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.72 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more

52%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

23%

Ruch Chorzów at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff