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Ruch Chorzów vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
Preview
16:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
3/6/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 23Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski
Big match
47%
Ruch Chorzów
model favours
47%25%28%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów47%
×Draw25%
Chrobry Głogów28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.16

Ruch Chorzów creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.76
Chrobry Głogów
1.07

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Chrobry Głogów
1.37

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
72%
Ruch Chorzów or Chrobry Głogów
75%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
53%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
24%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
79%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
46%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
21%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
69%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
32%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
62%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.76 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.07 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
47%
level
25%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
28%

Ruch Chorzów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chorzów
LWLWW
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ruch Chorzów face Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)

I Liga returns with Ruch Chorzów hosting Chrobry Głogów. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ruch Chorzów host Chrobry Głogów at Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.