Chrobry Głogów 2–2 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ruch Chorzów

M. Lewandowski 87'

P. Szwedzik 67'

M. Kozak 38'

M. Mezghrani 16'

5/19/2025

I Liga · Round 33Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chrobry Głogów37%

×Draw25%

Ruch Chorzów38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Chrobry Głogów

1.45

Ruch Chorzów

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

1.40

creates per match

1.44

1.51

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.40

Ruch Chorzów

1.44

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Ruch Chorzów

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

62%

Chrobry Głogów or Ruch Chorzów

75%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

63%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

17%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

77%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

42%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

18%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

77%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

43%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

49%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 43 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.40 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.44 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

37%

level

25%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

38%

Ruch Chorzów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

38'

46'

47'

51'

52'

63'

67'

69'

B. Barański← D. Ventúra

74'

M. Lebedyński← M. Bougaidis

78'

S. Karasiński← Y. Tsykalo

78'

S. Novothny← D. Szczepan

82'

D. Hanc← K. Tabiś

85'

J. Grič← S. Lewkot

85'

K. Grzelak← S. Bartlewicz

85'

F. Borowski← M. Kozak

85'

J. Sobeczko← J. Adkonis

87'

M. Lewandowski

90+2'

M. Mezghrani

Chrobry

Ruch

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Ł. Becella

46'▲M. Ozimek←▼P. Mucha

74'▲M. Lebedyński←▼M. Bougaidis

82'▲D. Hanc←▼K. Tabiś

85'▲J. Grič←▼S. Lewkot

85'▲K. Grzelak←▼S. Bartlewicz

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

OzimekLebedyńskiHancGričGrzelakArndtMarcinkowskiWojtalBonecki

Manager: D. Szulczek

69'▲B. Barański←▼D. Ventúra

78'▲S. Karasiński←▼Y. Tsykalo

78'▲S. Novothny←▼D. Szczepan

85'▲F. Borowski←▼M. Kozak

85'▲J. Sobeczko←▼J. Adkonis

Ruch Chorzów substitutes

BarańskiKarasińskiNovothnyBorowskiSobeczkoBieleckiMyszorŁaskiMoneta