Rubio NU 3–1 Guaraní de Trinidad: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Guaraní de Trinidad

8/19/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rubio NU43%

×Draw27%

Guaraní de Trinidad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchGuaraní de Trinidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Rubio NU

1.36

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.10

Rubio NU creates 24% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 32 away

1.39

creates per match

1.06

1.14

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.39

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.06

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.14

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

70%

Rubio NU or Guaraní de Trinidad

73%

Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad

57%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

20%

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

74%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

39%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

16%

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals

67%

Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals

30%

Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

59%

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rubio NU scores more

43%

level

27%

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more

30%

Rubio NU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff