Rubio NU 2–2 Fulgencio Yegros: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

2 – 2

Fulgencio Yegros

9/20/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Rubio NU48%

×Draw26%

Fulgencio Yegros26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchFulgencio Yegros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Rubio NU

1.50

Fulgencio Yegros

1.02

Rubio NU creates 47% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 48 away

1.39

creates per match

0.90

1.14

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.39

Fulgencio Yegros

0.90

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.14

Fulgencio Yegros

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

74%

Rubio NU or Fulgencio Yegros

74%

Draw or Fulgencio Yegros

52%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

24%

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

78%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

44%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

19%

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

64%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

27%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

65%

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rubio NU scores more

48%

level

26%

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

26%

Rubio NU at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff