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Rubio NU vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2026

Rubio NU
Rubio NU
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
A. Leguizamon 42'
7/7/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio La Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Rubio NU42%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Santani31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubio NU
1.35
Deportivo Santani
1.13

Rubio NU creates 19% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 86 away

creates per match

Rubio NU
1.36
Deportivo Santani
1.14

allows per match

Rubio NU
1.13
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw
69%
Rubio NU or Deportivo Santani
73%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
58%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals
74%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
39%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.36 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Santani attack 1.14 + Rubio NU defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rubio NU scores more
42%
level
27%
Deportivo Santani scores more
31%

Rubio NU at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Leguizamon
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubio NU vs Deportivo Santani

Rubio NU beat Deportivo Santani 1-0 in Division Intermedia on July 7, 2025.

Goals: A. Leguizamon (42').

The match was played at Estadio La Arboleda in Asunción.