Rubio NU 1–2 Atlético Colegiales: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Colegiales

8/7/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rubio NU53%

×Draw24%

Atlético Colegiales23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchAtlético Colegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.06

Rubio NU

1.72

Atlético Colegiales

1.06

Rubio NU creates 62% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 44 away

1.39

creates per match

0.98

1.14

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.39

Atlético Colegiales

0.98

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.14

Atlético Colegiales

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Atlético Colegiales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

77%

Rubio NU or Atlético Colegiales

76%

Draw or Atlético Colegiales

47%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

29%

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

82%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

51%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

25%

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

69%

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rubio NU scores more

53%

level

24%

Atlético Colegiales scores more

23%

Rubio NU at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff