Rubin Yalta 0–2 Sochi II: Result & Stats

Rubin Yalta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sochi II

8/23/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Avangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rubin Yalta45%

×Draw26%

Sochi II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin YaltaExpected goals in this matchSochi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Rubin Yalta

1.46

Sochi II

1.13

Rubin Yalta creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rubin Yalta

1.48

Sochi II

1.25

allows per match

Rubin Yalta

1.00

Sochi II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Yalta ↓

Sochi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rubin Yalta or draw

71%

Rubin Yalta or Sochi II

74%

Draw or Sochi II

55%

Winning margin

Rubin Yalta wins by 2+

22%

Sochi II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rubin Yalta 1+ goals

77%

Rubin Yalta 2+ goals

43%

Rubin Yalta 3+ goals

18%

Sochi II 1+ goals

68%

Sochi II 2+ goals

31%

Sochi II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)

60%

Sochi II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Yalta at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Yalta attack 1.48 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rubin Yalta scores more

45%

level

26%

Sochi II scores more

29%

Rubin Yalta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rubin Yalta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff