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Rubin vs Urozhay — First League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
8/15/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Kazan' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubin57%
×Draw24%
Urozhay20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.75
Urozhay
0.93

Rubin creates 88% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rubin
2.06
Urozhay
0.92

allows per match

Rubin
0.94
Urozhay
1.45

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
80%
Rubin or Urozhay
76%
Draw or Urozhay
43%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
32%
Urozhay wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
83%
Rubin 2+ goals
52%
Rubin 3+ goals
25%
Urozhay 1+ goals
61%
Urozhay 2+ goals
24%
Urozhay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
74%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.06 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

Urozhay attack 0.92 + Rubin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rubin scores more
57%
level
24%
Urozhay scores more
20%

Rubin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin vs Urozhay

Rubin beat Urozhay 3-0 in First League on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Kazan' Arena in Kazan'.