Rubin 2–0 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Rubin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rodina Moskva

7/17/2022

First League · Round 1Kazan' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubin46%

×Draw26%

Rodina Moskva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Rubin

1.52

Rodina Moskva

1.13

Rubin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

2.06

creates per match

1.32

0.94

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Rubin

2.06

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

Rubin

0.94

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

72%

Rubin or Rodina Moskva

74%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

54%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

23%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

78%

Rubin 2+ goals

45%

Rubin 3+ goals

20%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

31%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

62%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.06 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Rubin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rubin scores more

46%

level

26%

Rodina Moskva scores more

28%

Rubin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff