Rubin 2–0 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Rubin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pakhtakor

2/15/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rubin57%

×Draw24%

Pakhtakor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.87

Rubin

1.71

Pakhtakor

0.87

Rubin creates 97% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

2.12

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rubin

2.12

Pakhtakor

0.86

allows per match

Rubin

0.88

Pakhtakor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

81%

Rubin or Pakhtakor

76%

Draw or Pakhtakor

43%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

32%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

82%

Rubin 2+ goals

51%

Rubin 3+ goals

24%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

58%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

22%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

75%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.12 + Pakhtakor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pakhtakor attack 0.86 + Rubin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rubin scores more

57%

level

24%

Pakhtakor scores more

19%

Rubin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rubin

Pakhtakor

1

4

55

7

77

9

27

17

70

10

38

51

12

27

98

5

19

18

99

22

43

Manager: Franc Artiga

Manager: Pedro Moreira

Friendlies Clubs: Rubin 2–0 Pakhtakor

Rubin beat Pakhtakor 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2026.

Rubin vs Pakhtakor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Rubin 2–0 Pakhtakor