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Rubin vs Nizhny Novgorod — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
5/17/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Rubin47%
×Draw27%
Nizhny Novgorod26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.38
Nizhny Novgorod
0.94

Rubin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 78 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Nizhny Novgorod
0.78

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod
1.68

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
74%
Rubin or Nizhny Novgorod
73%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
53%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
23%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
75%
Rubin 2+ goals
40%
Rubin 3+ goals
16%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
61%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
24%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
65%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rubin scores more
47%
level
27%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
26%

Rubin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin vs Nizhny Novgorod

Rubin and Nizhny Novgorod drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 17, 2026.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan.