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Rubin vs Lokomotiv Moscow — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
4/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Rubin35%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Moscow38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.25
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.52

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.43

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
62%
Rubin or Lokomotiv Moscow
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow
65%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
71%
Rubin 2+ goals
36%
Rubin 3+ goals
13%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
48%
Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rubin scores more
35%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
38%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rubin 1–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Rubin and Lokomotiv Moscow drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan'.