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Rubin vs Baltika — First League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Baltika
Baltika
10/30/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Kazan' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubin46%
×Draw25%
Baltika28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.53
Baltika
1.14

Rubin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Rubin
2.06
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Rubin
0.94
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
72%
Rubin or Baltika
75%
Draw or Baltika
54%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
23%
Baltika wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
78%
Rubin 2+ goals
45%
Rubin 3+ goals
20%
Baltika 1+ goals
68%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
62%
Baltika (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.06 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Baltika attack 1.34 + Rubin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rubin scores more
46%
level
25%
Baltika scores more
28%

Rubin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rubin 3 – 3 Baltika

Rubin and Baltika drew 3-3 in First League on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kazan' Arena in Kazan'.