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Baltika vs Rubin — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin
Rubin
5/20/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baltika35%
×Draw32%
Rubin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
0.96
Rubin
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Rubin
1.06

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Rubin
0.65

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
67%
Baltika or Rubin
68%
Draw or Rubin
65%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
13%
Rubin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
62%
Baltika 2+ goals
25%
Baltika 3+ goals
7%
Rubin 1+ goals
60%
Rubin 2+ goals
23%
Rubin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
52%
Rubin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Rubin defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Rubin attack 1.06 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Baltika scores more
35%
level
32%
Rubin scores more
33%

Baltika at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Rubin

Rubin beat Baltika 1-0 in First League on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.