Rubin 1–2 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

Rubin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal Tula

10/1/2022

First League · Round 12Kazan' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubin53%

×Draw25%

Arsenal Tula22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.94

Rubin

1.60

Arsenal Tula

0.94

Rubin creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

2.06

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rubin

2.06

Arsenal Tula

0.94

allows per match

Rubin

0.94

Arsenal Tula

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

78%

Rubin or Arsenal Tula

75%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

47%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

28%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

80%

Rubin 2+ goals

47%

Rubin 3+ goals

22%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

61%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

24%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

70%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.06 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Rubin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rubin scores more

53%

level

25%

Arsenal Tula scores more

22%

Rubin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff