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Rubin vs Anzhi — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anzhi
Anzhi
5/20/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Kazan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rubin53%
×Draw28%
Anzhi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.38
Anzhi
0.71

Rubin creates 94% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Anzhi
0.33

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Anzhi
1.67

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
81%
Rubin or Anzhi
72%
Draw or Anzhi
47%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
26%
Anzhi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
75%
Rubin 2+ goals
40%
Rubin 3+ goals
16%
Anzhi 1+ goals
51%
Anzhi 2+ goals
16%
Anzhi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
73%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Anzhi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Anzhi attack 0.33 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rubin scores more
53%
level
28%
Anzhi scores more
19%

Rubin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rubin 0 – 0 Anzhi

Rubin and Anzhi drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 20, 2019.

The match was played at Kazan Arena in Kazan.