Rubin Kazan W 1–4 CSKA Moskva W: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

CSKA Moskva W

4/26/2025

Supreme Division Women · Round 7Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rubin Kazan W10%

×Draw19%

CSKA Moskva W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan WExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

2.08

Rubin Kazan W

0.65

CSKA Moskva W

2.08

CSKA Moskva W creates 220% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

0.83

creates per match

2.16

2.01

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Rubin Kazan W

0.83

CSKA Moskva W

2.16

allows per match

Rubin Kazan W

2.01

CSKA Moskva W

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan W or draw

29%

Rubin Kazan W or CSKA Moskva W

81%

Draw or CSKA Moskva W

90%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+

3%

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals

48%

Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals

14%

Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals

3%

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals

87%

CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals

61%

CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)

13%

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan W at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.83 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.65

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rubin Kazan W scores more

10%

level

19%

CSKA Moskva W scores more

71%

CSKA Moskva W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff