Rubin Kazan U20 2–3 Tambov U20: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan U20

FT

2 – 3

Tambov U20

10/4/2019

Youth Championship · Round 12Stadion Rubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rubin Kazan U2053%

×Draw22%

Tambov U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan U20Expected goals in this matchTambov U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.27

Rubin Kazan U20

1.95

Tambov U20

1.27

Rubin Kazan U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

1.25

1.28

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Rubin Kazan U20

1.27

Tambov U20

1.25

allows per match

Rubin Kazan U20

1.28

Tambov U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Tambov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan U20 ↓

Tambov U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan U20 or draw

75%

Rubin Kazan U20 or Tambov U20

78%

Draw or Tambov U20

47%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+

31%

Tambov U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals

86%

Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals

58%

Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals

31%

Tambov U20 1+ goals

72%

Tambov U20 2+ goals

36%

Tambov U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Tambov U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.27 + Tambov U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.95

Tambov U20 attack 1.25 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more

53%

level

22%

Tambov U20 scores more

25%

Rubin Kazan U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rubin Kazan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff