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Rubin Kazan U20 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
9/27/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Rubin' zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rubin Kazan U2059%
×Draw22%
Orenburg U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan U20
1.97
Orenburg U19
1.04

Rubin Kazan U20 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.27
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.28
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan U20 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan U20 or draw
80%
Rubin Kazan U20 or Orenburg U19
78%
Draw or Orenburg U19
41%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
35%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
86%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
58%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
31%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
65%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
28%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.27 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.97

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
59%
level
22%
Orenburg U19 scores more
20%

Rubin Kazan U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rubin Kazan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin Kazan U20 vs Orenburg U19

Rubin Kazan U20 beat Orenburg U19 3-1 in Youth Championship on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rubin' zapasnoe pole in Kazan'.