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Rubin Kazan U20 vs FShM U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FShM U19
FShM U19
8/25/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rubin Kazan U2055%
×Draw24%
FShM U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan U20
1.75
FShM U19
0.98

Rubin Kazan U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.27
FShM U19
0.67

allows per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.28
FShM U19
2.22

finishing

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par
FShM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan U20 ↓

FShM U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan U20 or draw
79%
Rubin Kazan U20 or FShM U19
76%
Draw or FShM U19
45%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
31%
FShM U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
83%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
52%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
25%
FShM U19 1+ goals
62%
FShM U19 2+ goals
26%
FShM U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
72%
FShM U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

FShM U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.27 + FShM U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

FShM U19 attack 0.67 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
55%
level
24%
FShM U19 scores more
21%

Rubin Kazan U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rubin Kazan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Rubin Kazan U20 0–0 FShM U19

Rubin Kazan U20 and FShM U19 drew 0-0 in Youth Championship on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye rezervy in Kazan'.