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Rubin Kazan U20 vs Arsenal Tula U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
FT
0 – 0
Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
8/17/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 6Stadion Rubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rubin Kazan U2038%
×Draw25%
Arsenal Tula U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan U20
1.43
Arsenal Tula U20
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 39 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.27
Arsenal Tula U20
1.49

allows per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.28
Arsenal Tula U20
1.59

finishing

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan U20 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan U20 or draw
64%
Rubin Kazan U20 or Arsenal Tula U20
75%
Draw or Arsenal Tula U20
62%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
76%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
42%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
17%
Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
75%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
40%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.27 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
38%
level
25%
Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
36%

Rubin Kazan U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rubin Kazan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Rubin Kazan U20 0–0 Arsenal Tula U20

Rubin Kazan U20 and Arsenal Tula U20 drew 0-0 in Youth Championship on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Rubin in Kazan'.