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Rubin Kazan 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Rubin Kazan 2
Rubin Kazan 2
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
8/31/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Central'nyj stadion Kazan'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rubin Kazan 272%
×Draw18%
Nizhny Novgorod II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan 2
2.16
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.64

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 238% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2
1.69
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.46

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2
0.81
Nizhny Novgorod II
2.62

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw
90%
Rubin Kazan 2 or Nizhny Novgorod II
82%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II
28%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+
48%
Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals
88%
Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals
63%
Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals
36%
Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
47%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
14%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)
88%
Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.16

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more
72%
level
18%
Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
10%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Rubin Kazan 2 4–0 Nizhny Novgorod II

Rubin Kazan 2 beat Nizhny Novgorod II 4-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' in Kazan'.