Rubin Kazan 2 2–1 Lada Tolyatti: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan 2

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lada Tolyatti

4/20/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rubin Kazan 272%

×Draw17%

Lada Tolyatti11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan 2Expected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.76

Rubin Kazan 2

2.31

Lada Tolyatti

0.76

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 41 away

1.69

creates per match

0.71

0.81

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2

1.69

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2

0.81

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw

89%

Rubin Kazan 2 or Lada Tolyatti

83%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

28%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+

48%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals

90%

Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals

67%

Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals

40%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

53%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

18%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)

87%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more

72%

level

17%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

11%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff