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Rubin Kazan 2 vs KDV — Second League - Group 4 2020

Rubin Kazan 2
Rubin Kazan 2
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KDV
KDV
4/12/2025Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Rubin' zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rubin Kazan 242%
×Draw27%
KDV32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan 2
1.37
KDV
1.16

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2
1.69
KDV
1.50

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2
0.81
KDV
1.05

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par
KDV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

KDV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw
68%
Rubin Kazan 2 or KDV
73%
Draw or KDV
58%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+
19%
KDV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals
75%
Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals
40%
Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals
16%
KDV 1+ goals
69%
KDV 2+ goals
32%
KDV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)
57%
KDV (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

KDV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + KDV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.37

KDV attack 1.50 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more
42%
level
27%
KDV scores more
32%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin Kazan 2 vs KDV

Rubin Kazan 2 beat KDV 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rubin' zapasnoe pole in Kazan'.