Rubin Kazan 2 5–0 Akron II: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan 2

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Akron II

5/25/2025

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Rubin' zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rubin Kazan 263%

×Draw21%

Akron II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan 2Expected goals in this matchAkron II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.85

Rubin Kazan 2

1.95

Akron II

0.85

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

0.81

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2

1.69

Akron II

0.90

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2

0.81

Akron II

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par

Akron II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

Akron II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw

84%

Rubin Kazan 2 or Akron II

79%

Draw or Akron II

37%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+

38%

Akron II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals

86%

Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals

58%

Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals

31%

Akron II 1+ goals

57%

Akron II 2+ goals

21%

Akron II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)

80%

Akron II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Akron II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + Akron II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.95

Akron II attack 0.90 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more

63%

level

21%

Akron II scores more

16%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff