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Rubikon vs VAST — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rubikon
Rubikon
CANC
00:00
VAST
VAST
5/6/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rubikon47%
×Draw22%
VAST31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubikon
1.95
VAST
1.54

Rubikon creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rubikon
0.77
VAST
0.93

allows per match

Rubikon
2.15
VAST
3.13

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par
VAST+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

VAST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw
69%
Rubikon or VAST
78%
Draw or VAST
53%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+
27%
VAST wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals
86%
Rubikon 2+ goals
58%
Rubikon 3+ goals
31%
VAST 1+ goals
79%
VAST 2+ goals
45%
VAST 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)
61%
VAST (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

VAST away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + VAST defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 1.95

VAST attack 0.93 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rubikon scores more
47%
level
22%
VAST scores more
31%

Rubikon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rubikon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rubikon host VAST

May 6, 2023: Rubikon take on VAST in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.