Rubikon 1–4 Uzhhorod: Result & Stats

Rubikon

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Uzhhorod

M. Tyshchenko 78'

S. Mashtalir 71', 68'

D. Skotarenko 62', 17'

11/26/2020

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 10Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rubikon23%

×Draw23%

Uzhhorod54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubikonExpected goals in this matchUzhhorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.83

Rubikon

1.10

Uzhhorod

1.83

Uzhhorod creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

0.77

creates per match

1.51

2.15

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rubikon

0.77

Uzhhorod

1.51

allows per match

Rubikon

2.15

Uzhhorod

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par

Uzhhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Uzhhorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw

46%

Rubikon or Uzhhorod

77%

Draw or Uzhhorod

77%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+

9%

Uzhhorod wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals

67%

Rubikon 2+ goals

30%

Rubikon 3+ goals

10%

Uzhhorod 1+ goals

84%

Uzhhorod 2+ goals

54%

Uzhhorod 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)

29%

Uzhhorod (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Uzhhorod away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Uzhhorod defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Uzhhorod attack 1.51 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rubikon scores more

23%

level

23%

Uzhhorod scores more

54%

Uzhhorod at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uzhhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Skotarenko

46'

O. Borovyk← O. Marchenko

46'

V. Kovernyk← Y. Glushchuk

62'

D. Skotarenko

65'

R. Kunoun← V. Novikov

65'

A. Derevyago← S. Shyshkin

68'

S. Mashtalir

71'

S. Mashtalir

72'

P. Tyshchuk← Y. Chonka

75'

V. Bachynskyi← V. Shutenko

78'

M. Tyshchenko

82'

V. Ferentsyk← D. Skotarenko

90'

V. Duran← V. Ryashko

90'

I. Kapustey← S. Mashtalir

Rubikon

Uzhhorod

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Mashtalir

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Litovchenko

46'▲O. Borovyk←▼O. Marchenko

46'▲V. Kovernyk←▼Y. Glushchuk

65'▲R. Kunoun←▼V. Novikov

65'▲A. Derevyago←▼S. Shyshkin

75'▲V. Bachynskyi←▼V. Shutenko

Rubikon substitutes

BorovykKovernykKunounDerevyagoBachynskyi

Manager: V. Vasyutyk

72'▲P. Tyshchuk←▼Y. Chonka

82'▲V. Ferentsyk←▼D. Skotarenko

90'▲V. Duran←▼V. Ryashko

90'▲I. Kapustey←▼S. Mashtalir

Uzhhorod substitutes

TyshchukFerentsykDuranKapustey